Matty Johns and Cooper Cronk previewed the NRL Grand Final between the Melbourne Storm and Brisbane Broncos. They highlighted the Storm’s potent spine, particularly Cameron Munster’s running game, as a key threat. Cronk advises Broncos to start Ben Hunt at hooker and bring Ezra Mam off the bench. The forward battle is crucial, with the Storm’s Utoikamanu needing a dominant performance. Johns emphasized the Storm’s discipline and preparation advantage. Defensive vulnerabilities exist on both sides, with the Storm’s left edge a potential target for the Broncos, while the Storm can exploit the Broncos’ left edge. Cronk predicts a Storm win, 28-10, with Eliesa Katoa as player of the match, while Johns forecasts a close Storm victory with Ryan Papenhuyzen earning the Clive Churchill Medal.
Highlights
Here are the key takeaways from the NRL Grand Final preview by Matty Johns and Cooper Cronk:
- Storm’s Spine: The Storm’s spine of Papenhuyzen, Munster, Hughes, and Grant is formidable, but injuries have limited their playing time together.
- Munster’s Running Game: Broncos must contain Cameron Munster’s running game, as he runs more in big games.
- Broncos’ Spine: Cronk advises against starting Ezra Mam due to his recent injury. Keep him on the bench and let Ben Hunt shift to hooker when ready.
- Forward Pack Battle: The Grand Final will likely be won or lost in the forward battle between the Storm and Broncos.
- Storm’s Forwards: Kamikamica and Utoikamanu need to be at their best to match the Broncos pack, especially Haas.
- Preparation Advantage: The Storm have a significant advantage with two extra days of preparation compared to the Broncos.
- Defensive Weaknesses: The Storm’s left-edge defence (Munster and Howarth) is vulnerable, and the Broncos left edge had issues in their preliminary final.
- Kicking Game: Storm’s kicking game gives them an advantage as Mariner and Karapani for the Broncos are vulnerable under the high ball and the Storm have strong aerial players.
- Predictions: Both Johns and Cronk are tipping the Melbourne Storm to win, with Cronk predicting a dominant 28-10 victory and Eliesa Katoa winning the Clive Churchill Medal. Johns predicts a Storm win by four points with Ryan Papenhuyzen winning the Clive Churchill Medal.
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NRL Grand Final: Storm vs. Broncos – Where Legends Collide and Destinies Are Forged
The air crackles with anticipation. The roar of the crowd is almost palpable. It’s Grand Final time in the NRL, and the Melbourne Storm are set to clash with the Brisbane Broncos in a battle for the ages. But where will this epic contest be won and lost? Two of the game’s sharpest minds, Matty Johns and Cooper Cronk, have dissected the key matchups, the strategic nuances, and the raw emotion that will define this championship showdown.
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The Melbourne Storm’s Spine: A Symphony of Talent, A Question of Harmony
The Dream Team… On Paper?
The Melbourne Storm boast a spine that reads like a rugby league fantasy: Ryan Papenhuyzen at fullback, Cameron Munster pulling the strings at five-eighth, Jahrome Hughes directing traffic at halfback, and Harry Grant orchestrating the attack from hooker. It’s a spine that sends shivers down the spines of opposing coaches, including those in Brisbane.
“The Storm have the best spine on paper in the NRL bar none,”
(Matty Johns)
The Harsh Reality of Injuries and Inconsistency
Yet, this dream spine has been a frustratingly infrequent reality. A brutal combination of injuries to Hughes and Papenhuyzen, compounded by suspensions and further injuries to Grant, has robbed the Storm of consistent game time and cohesion within this pivotal quartet. The numbers don’t lie.
- Hughes’ Injury Woes: Missed several key games due to a fractured arm.
- Papenhuyzen’s Comeback Trail: Battled back from a serious knee injury, limiting his time on the field.
- Grant’s Absences: A series of minor injuries and representative duties have disrupted his rhythm.
The Band is Back Together: Can the Storm Unleash Their Fury?
Now, as the Grand Final looms, this fearsome foursome is finally reunited. The question is: can they rediscover their chemistry and unleash the full force of their attacking firepower against a resolute Broncos defense?
Cronk’s Insight: Run First, Dominate Later
Cooper Cronk, a Storm legend himself, believes the key to the Storm’s success lies in their spine’s mentality. He emphasizes a “run first” approach, a willingness to take on the defense directly through the middle of the field.
“I think the Storm spine have been waiting a long time for this moment…Mindset one was get the ball and be the dominant player on the field.”
(Cooper Cronk)
He lauded the individual brilliance and sheer determination of Grant, Munster, and Hughes in the preliminary final victory over the Sharks.
Hughes’ Heroic Return: A Gamble That Paid Off?
The return of Jahrome Hughes, just over three weeks after fracturing his arm, was nothing short of inspirational. He defied medical timelines, displaying courage and resilience that ignited his team.
“Jahrome Hughes 22 days from a broken arm and back playing and was a star of the game.”
(Matty Johns)
But Cronk cautioned that the Sharks may have been too lenient on Hughes, failing to adequately test his injured arm early in the game. The Broncos will undoubtedly be more strategic in targeting any perceived weakness.
The Munster Menace: A Big-Game Performer
Matty Johns singled out Cameron Munster as the standout player in the preliminary final, praising his powerful running game and his uncanny ability to rise to the occasion in crucial moments.
“Munster in my opinion was the best player on the field, his running game was so strong. He is one of the greatest ever big-game players.”
(Matty Johns)
Cronk echoed this sentiment, highlighting Munster’s tendency to prioritize running the ball in high-stakes matches.
Munster’s Running Game: A Statistical Anomaly
Consider this: a typical halfback might run the ball 5 or 6 times in a game, touching the ball around 50 times. But in big games, Munster flips the script, touching the ball around 35 times and running with it 15-20 times! This unpredictability makes him a nightmare to defend.
“In big games Munster goes the other way. He touches the ball 35 times and he runs it 15 or 20 times.”
(Cooper Cronk)
Cronk warns that if the Broncos fail to contain Munster’s running game, they will be in for a long and arduous day.
“I think the Broncos need to stop that. If Munster is running the ball they are no chance.”
(Cooper Cronk)
Actionable advice for the Broncos:
- Target Munster early: Don’t let him build momentum.
- Double-team: When he runs, send two defenders to cut him down.
- Anticipate his runs: Study the film and learn his tendencies.
The Brisbane Broncos’ Spine: A Balancing Act of Risk and Reward
The Ezra Mam Conundrum: Start or Bench?
One of the biggest questions facing the Broncos is whether to start Ezra Mam at five-eighth or bring him off the bench. Mam is returning from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for the majority of the last two months of the season, and there’s a risk of overexerting him if he starts the game.
Data To Consider:
- Typical Recovery Time: Hamstring injuries typically require 4-8 weeks of recovery, meaning Mam could still be vulnerable.
- Recurrence Rate: Hamstring injuries have a high recurrence rate, increasing the risk of re-injury if Mam is pushed too hard, too soon.
- Performance Metrics: Assess Mam’s speed, agility, and power output in training to determine his readiness.
Mam’s Impact Off the Bench: A Spark of Brilliance
However, the Broncos’ attack looked considerably more dangerous when Mam came on at five-eighth, shifting Ben Hunt to hooker. So, do the Broncos need to unleash their best combination from the outset to avoid playing catch-up against a Storm side that rarely relinquishes a lead?
“He took on the best player, smashed him up a little bit and the Broncos went on to win. But at the end of the day I think Mam starts off the bench.”
(Cooper Cronk)
Cronk’s Verdict: Patience and Gradual Integration
Cronk, however, advises against starting Mam. He believes the Broncos should stick with their established game plan, allowing Cory Paix to absorb the initial pressure at hooker before shifting Hunt into that role once he finds his rhythm in the halves.
He highlights the importance of Hunt’s confidence at hooker, citing his successful 40/20 kick and his deft dummy that led to a try. Cronk believes Mam should be kept fresh, ready to inject his running game into the match later on.
Strategic considerations for the Broncos:
- Manage Mam’s workload: Limit his minutes and monitor his condition closely.
- Utilize his speed: Bring him on when the game opens up and his speed can be a weapon.
- Protect him in defense: Minimize his exposure to heavy collisions.
The Battle of the Forward Packs: Where Titans Clash
The Engine Room: The Heart of the Matter
Grand Finals are often decided in the forward pack. It is the contest between the Storm and Broncos that will dictate the flow of the game. Both Brisbane and Melbourne were preseason favorites to compete with the Panthers premiership dynasty because of the strength of their forward packs.
Broncos’ Enforcers:
- Payne Haas
- Patrick Carrigan
- Jordan Riki
- Brendan Piakura
- Xavier Willison
Storm’s Response:
- Stefano Utoikamanu
- Josh King
- Shawn Blore
- Eliesa Katoa
- Tui Kamikamica
Disciplined Defense: The Key to Victory
Johns believes that discipline will be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of the match, warning the Broncos to avoid giving away soft penalties, like the ones that plagued the Sharks in the preliminary final.
Impact of Preparation: The Advantage Storm
Preparation Advantage
Michael Maguire dismissed suggestions that the Storm had an advantage from having two extra days of preparation before the Grand Final.
“Madge came out and said, it’s rubbish don’t worry about the extra two days, but the bottom line is it is a monumental advantage…Two days extra to recover, on top of the nature of the two contests, it is advantage Melbourne.”
(Matty Johns)
Cronk’s Perspective
Cronk said it was the correct thing for Michael Maguire to say that, as a leader.
“Firstly, that is exactly the right thing for Michael Maguire to say that…He is saying everything he needs to, to put belief into his team. On the flip side it is an advantage to have two days prior. The Storm game is stop-start on a Friday night in Melbourne coming up against ball in play for a long time Suncorp Stadium Sunday afternoon fast paced game. That is an advantage at the back end of the year absolutely.”
(Cooper Cronk)
Defensive Weaknesses
The Storm’s Left Edge
Johns believes that the Sharks were able to exploit the Storm’s left edge, with Sione Katoa scoring two tries.
“One thing about the Storm their left side defence is a bit of a concern.”
(Matty Johns)
Cronk highlights Liam Martin scoring a try in last year’s Grand Final, and Jack Howarth’s positioning against the Sharks.
“Last year’s grand final I think it was Liam Martin who scored a try just on the stroke of half-time…They caught Jack Howarth out of position and he got spotted up again against the Sharks. I think that’s exactly where the Broncos will look to get at that Munster and Howarth combination on the left edge.”
(Cooper Cronk)
Broncos’ Left Edge Vulnerabilities
Cronk also warns the Broncos about their own vulnerabilities on the left edge, after the Panthers scored two tries through Paul Alamoti during their preliminary final.
The Broncos’ Aerial Defence
Cronk warns that the Broncos wingers will be tested under the high ball.
“I think the advantage for the Storm is through the kicking game. Mariner and Karapani look vulnerable under the high ball and William Warbrick and Xavier Coates have a point of difference there.”
(Cooper Cronk)
Final Verdicts: The Prophecies of Matty and Cronk
Cronk’s Prediction: A Storm Surge
Cooper Cronk is backing his former side, the Melbourne Storm, to emerge victorious. He envisions a dominant performance.
“Melbourne Storm win for me, I think it’s a dominant victory, let’s call it 28-10 and Eliesa Katoa for Clive Churchill Medal,”
(Cooper Cronk)
Johns’ Prediction: A Tight Contest
Matty Johns is also tipping the Storm, but he anticipates a much closer contest.
“I’ve gone Storm by four and Ryan Papenhuyzen for Clive Churchill Medal,”
(Matty Johns)
The Bottom Line
The NRL Grand Final promises to be a spectacle of skill, passion, and unwavering determination. The Melbourne Storm and the Brisbane Broncos are two of the league’s most formidable teams, and their clash for the title will undoubtedly be a memorable one.
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